"How many homes do we need? And where do we need them? These are important questions for Oxford, a small city which is among the least affordable places to live in the UK. House prices are over 12 times household earnings. Private rents are soaring.
"Unaffordable housing puts people at greater risk of homelessness. It pushes them into hardship, overcrowded conditions or out of Oxford altogether. The 2021 Census found 23% fewer under-fives in Oxford compared to 2011 – a clear sign young families find it increasingly difficult to live here.
"Even before the cost-of-living crisis, unaffordable housing meant a quarter of Oxford’s children lived in poverty. Bad housing has a devastating impact on children’s health and wellbeing and casts a long shadow over their future life chances.
"Our draft Local Plan 2040 prioritises housing and we’ve left no stone unturned in identifying space to build 9,612 new homes in Oxford. This will be achieved by a range of measures including building at higher density and using our housing company OX Place to unlock difficult-to-develop sites traditional builders wouldn’t touch.
"The problem is Oxford will need 26,440 homes by 2040 and – as the city is built on a flood plain and surrounded by green belt – we’re out of room. The remaining 16,828 homes will need to be built in our neighbouring districts.
"Our figures are based on an independent assessment of how many homes Oxford needs to support job and population growth until 2040. This approach is more realistic than the outdated 'standard method’ which relies on 2011 Census data and population projections from 2014. The 2021 Census proved these projections were wrong.
"We’re not creating demand for jobs – our plans are about sensibly managing our local economy. Our Local Plan allocates no new employment sites and allows employers to build homes on their land. But we must nurture our world-class life science, education and technology sectors, not just for their sake but for the thousands of supply chain and service jobs they support across Oxfordshire.
"Our neighbours have already agreed to build 14,300 of the homes Oxford needs in their current local plans. This means we need an extra 2,528 homes – or just 126 new homes a year across Oxfordshire.
"We think most of these could be built on existing sites next to our boundaries like Grenoble Road, Bayswater Brook and Northfield, already earmarked for 5,900 homes. Densifying on such sites - near existing jobs, public transport and community networks - makes sense.
"There is a way. Time will tell if there’s the will. I hope so. Otherwise, where will our children and grandchildren live?"
Councillor Louise Upton, Cabinet Member for Planning and Healthier Communities
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