How many more homes will Oxford need?

All local planning authorities need to have an up-to-date local plan, supported by an evidence base, which sets out how and where homes, jobs and infrastructure will be delivered. 

Oxford’s draft Local Plan is underpinned by two main documents. The first of these is an independent ‘housing and employment needs assessment’ (HENA). This has been jointly commissioned with Cherwell District Council and it assesses the need for housing based on forecasts of economic growth.  

The second document is a separate ‘housing and economic land availability assessment’ (HELAA). For this, the council searches the city for all possible potential sites where the landowner is willing to bring the land forward for housing. 

These assess Oxford will need 26,440 homes over the period 2020–2040, which means we need 1,322 new homes a year. However, there is only the capacity to build 9,612 of these – 481 a year – within the city’s boundaries.  

The City Council has carried out a significant amount of work to maximise the number of homes that can be built within the city’s boundary, including: 

• Assuming a density generally at least twice that assumed in neighbouring districts when calculating the housing capacity of sites 
• Making it easier for large employers to build affordable housing for workers on their land, or converting their land for residential use 
• Creating a housing company, OX Place, to build homes in difficult-to-develop sites within Oxford. OX Place aims to build 2,000 homes over the next decade 
• Contacting all major landowners and agents in Oxford to identify potential opportunities for development 

Despite these efforts, the shortfall between need and capacity within Oxford’s boundaries means an unmet need of 16,828 homes before 2040 – 841 a year. 

Oxford’s neighbouring districts have already agreed to accommodate 14,300 of these – 715 homes a year – on sites bordering or close to the city. These housing numbers are included in their existing local plans.  

To accommodate the additional 2,528 homes will only require 126 extra homes each year across Oxfordshire until 2040.  

Oxford will use its evidence as the basis for discussions with its neighbours on meeting Oxford’s unmet need as the surrounding districts develop their own local plans. It is entirely their decision where these dwellings could be situated, but the City Council believes many of these could be delivered without the need to identify new development sites – for example, by increasing densification to levels permitted in Oxford on sites adjacent to city boundaries. 

Oxford’s draft Local Plan 2040 will go out for public consultation in October. 

“We have robust and objective evidence on how many more homes Oxford will need before 2040. We’ve worked hard to maximise the capacity for building those new homes within our city.

“I would also stress that we have not allocated any new sites for employment in our next Local Plan, and we’ve made it easier for large employers to build affordable housing for workers on their own land, or even for that land to be converted to residential use. We also assume a housing density generally of double that of our neighbouring districts and we’re making the best use of the City Council’s own land, with our housing company OX Place unlocking the potential of brownfield and small infill sites that purely commercial developers would not consider viable.

“We appreciate that asking our neighbouring districts to allow extra homes within their boundaries is not easy, but our new plan to 2040 only asks for an extra 126 homes a year across the whole county to meet Oxford’s unmet need. We think many of these could be delivered on sites already allocated for development in their current local plans.”

Councillor Louise Upton, Cabinet Member for Planning and Healthier Communities

Assessing housing need 

The National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) sets out a standard method as a starting point for assessing housing need. This has not been adjusted to take account of the 2021 Census and the NPPF allows for alternative approaches where there are exceptional local circumstances. 

Oxfordshire has a strong and diverse economy, which is forecast to keep growing, even during a prolonged period of economic volatility. This is primarily due to the county’s world-class life science, education and technology sectors. There is a strong and growing need for lab and R&D space in particular.  

The HENA considers a range of scenarios. From this analysis, the council concludes the best way to objectively measure housing need is to forecast future job growth and then calculate the number of homes needed to support this sustainably.  

Under this model – referred to as the Cambridge Econometrics Baseline Trend – Oxford will need 1,322 new homes each year between 2020 and 2040.  

As people’s home and work lives transcend individual council boundaries, the HENA is based on Oxfordshire’s distinctive employment and housing market area. However, its purpose is to specifically inform the review of both Oxford and Cherwell local plans.  

Housing capacity 

Oxford has a longstanding shortage of potential land for housing due to a large floodplain, the city’s tight administrative boundaries and the surrounding Green Belt. 

A draft HELAA was published in September 2022 which identified the potential to build 9,147 homes – 457 homes a year – on sites over 0.25 hectares and windfall sites with the potential for building up to nine homes. 

The council has subsequently undertaken more work on the HELAA to refine the capacity figure. This includes updated monitoring data on completions, planning permissions, and an updated windfall assumption, as well as work on Local Plan 2040 site allocations and landowner intentions.   

The total capacity now stands at 9,623 homes over the plan period to 2040, or 481 homes a year.